***** Illegal Curve is no longer posting at this address. Visit us at our new location http://www.illegalcurve.com
*****

Thursday, January 31, 2008

FROZEN ASSETS


Does parity in the standings lead to parity in Stanley Cup odds?

In this week’s Tuesday Editorial, we questioned the value of seeding in the playoffs and concluded that the difference between the top seeds and bottom seeds is negligible. If the difference between the top and bottom seeds are negligible, the odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup should be relatively similar, especially two-thirds of the way into the season.



An examination of the best odds on each team to win the Stanley Cup reveals significant differences in odds between similarly situated teams. Why? Do the Rangers have enough time to turn around their season? Are the Ducks the third most likely team to win the Stanley Cup? Will the bottom fall out for the Habs and Bruins? Odds makers think so. Do you?

Here are the standings and best odds as of January 31, 2008. I have ordered the teams by conference and points-per game played. Note I will only include a price in a betting exchange if there is more than $10 available on the posted odds.

Eastern Conference


Team……........PPG…….…Best Odds......…Site....PPG Rank...Best Odds Rank

Ottawa…....…..1.33…………+600………Carib……..(2)….........(2)

Philadelphia......1.24…………+2200…….Betfair........(3)….........(8)

Montreal…...…1.24………….+3300….....Ladbrokes..(3)…........(12)

New Jersey...….1.18…………+2050….…Olympic.... (7)........….(5)

Pittsburgh……...1.18………...+2050….…
Olympic.....(7)….........(5)

Boston…………1.14…..…….+5500…..…Canbet......(11)…....…(16)

New York (I)….1.06………....+6600….....
Ladbrokes.(19)…........(17)

Buffalo………...1.04…..…….+7000….….
Betfair......(20)....……(20)

New York (R)…1.04……...….+3000….....Stan James(20).......... (11)

Carolina……….1.02…………+3343.....….Pinnacle....(22)...........(13)

Washington…...1.00…………+10000….…
Stan James(23)...........(23)

Atlanta………...0.98…..…….+6600……...
Stan James(24)...........(17)

Florida………....0.94………..+16000….....
Betfair......(27)...........(29)

Toronto…….0.92………….…+12500…....
Stan James(28)...........(25)

Tampa Bay…0.88……………+12500….....
Pinnacle..(29)...........(25)


Western Conference

Team….…....PPG……………..Best Odds……Site….PPG Rank…Best Odds Rank

Detroit……..1.54……………..+354…….....WSEX…..(1)………..(1)

San Jose….1.24………………+1415………
Olympic....(3)…….…(4)

Minnesota...1.20………………+2550….…..
Olympic....(6)…….....(9)

Calgary...…1.18………………+2550….…..
Olympic....(7)…….….(9)

Dallas…….1.17……………….+3345……...
Pinnacle..(10)………(13)

Colorado…1.14………………..+4000……...
Carib.......(11)…...….(15)

Vancouver..1.12………………+2050…..…..
Olympic...(13)……....(5)

Anaheim….1.11……………….+885….……
Olympic...(14)…….....(3)

Phoenix…..1.10……………….+12500……..
Ladbrokes(15)...........(25)

Nashville….1.08……………....+6600…..…..5dimes....(16)…....…(17)

Columbus...1.08……………….+9000….……
Betfair....(16)…........(22)

St. Louis…..1.08………………+7900…….....
Betfair.. (16)............(21)

Chicago……0.98………………+11000…...…
Betfair...(24)............(24)

Edmonton…0.96………………+12500………
Pinnacle(26)...........(25)

Los Angeles..0.83……………..+6000.………
Pinnacle(30)............(30)


Based on points per game and odds, Anaheim and Vancouver are overrated in the Western Conference, while the New York Rangers and the Hurricanes are overrated in the Eastern Conference. The best value in the Western Conference is on Phoenix, followed by Columbus and St. Louis. In the Eastern Conference Montreal is the best bet, followed by Philadelphia and Boston.

I hope you can use this information to generate a few cheap thrills, but remember my favorite expression: “You win some, you lose most.”

For illegal curve, I’m Ari Baum-Cohen


About the writer: Ari Baum-Cohen's first sports betting victory came at age 8 when he won his father's office pool. He screamed like a 14 year-old girl at a Lil' Bow Wow concert when Tampa Bay (had at +3500 to win Cup) and Calgary (had at +15000 to win Cup) made the Stanley Cup finals.

January 17, 2008: Reviewing the Division Predictions
January 10, 2008: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
January 3, 2008: Glossary of Terms Used on Frozen Assets
December 27, 2007: Ho Ho Horrible Homestands and Road Warriors
December 14, 2007: Western Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
December 7, 2007: Eastern Conference: Starting Odds, Current Odds, Highest Odds
November 29, 2007: How to Find the Sportsbook For You, The NHL's best division - The Central(?)
November 22, 2007: 10 Futures Bets You Should Have Made Over the First Quarter of the Season
November 15, 2007: Explaining the Exchange(2), Random Thoughts on the Futures
November 9, 2007: Exaplaining the Exchange(1), This Weeks Best Bets
November 1, 2007: Profiling the Eastern Conference Teams
October 25, 2007: Profiling the Western Conference Teams
October 18, 2007: To Win the Conference or the Cup? Frozen Assets' European Vacation
October, 11, 2007: Top 5 Hockey Futures Books, Stanley Cup Odds
October 4, 2007: Bad Lines, Soft Lines, and Conference Odds
September 27, 2007: Avoiding Fraudulent Sportsbooks and Preview of Division Betting
September 20, 2007: Introduction to Frozen Assets and Futures Highlights From Last Year

Ballhype: hype it up!

Rob Schremp Shootout Goal

Throughout the year Rob Schremp has contributed to Illegal Curve by giving readers an inside look at life in the AHL. Rob's fourth contribution to the site will be posted in the next day or two, but for now, just sit back and enjoy this goal that Rob scored at AHL All-Star Game over the weekend.

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.


Thanks to HockeyTubeV1 for posting it on YouTube.

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Thursday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

NHL Morning Papers (Wednesday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Tuesday Editorial: Does Seeding Even Matter?

With the NHL Playoffs less than three months away, the time has come to start seriously evaluating the playoff race. Prior to the NHL lockout, it was fairly easy to predict the majority of the teams that would qualify for the playoffs in the spring. Now, however, with parity becoming the new catch-word in the NHL, it has become almost impossible to predict who are the haves and have not’s going into the stretch drive of the season.

One needs to just take one look at the Western Conference standings to understand this phenomenon. Aside from the Detroit Red Wings, who are sitting atop the Western Conference at 78 points, seeds two through twelve in the conference are separated by a meagre ten points. Think about that for a second; only ten points separate a strong “playoff favourite” from a team that will be hitting the links in mid-April. With seeds two through eight (eight teams make the NHL playoffs in each conference) only separated by five points right now, if the playoffs were to start today, would any match-up constitute an upset? The only team that, in reality, could be upset is the Detroit Red Wings. While the Red Wings have had their fair share of playoff success over the years, they have also had their fair share of disappointments; an upset of this year’s version of the Red Wings wouldn’t be all that shocking.

If you thought the Western Conference was close, the Eastern Conference is separated from seeds one through eight by a total of twelve points. In fact, if the Southeast Division teams continue their embarrassing seasons to date, it appears one team in the Eastern Conference will be left out of the playoff with more points than the three seed (each division winner is guaranteed a spot in the top three of the conference). Aside from the Ottawa Senators, who are actually coming back to the pack, the conference is extremely close. In fact, only five points separate seeds two through eights. Again, this may sound repetitive but, is seed two really any better than seed eight? Not likely. Further, if seeds nine (New York Rangers) and ten (Washington Capitals) miss the eighth seed of the playoffs by a point or two, and the fifth seed by five or six points, are they that much worse than a “favourite” in their conference. I think not; in fact, the playoff team may have gotten an extra bounce or two over the course of the season and that becomes the difference between a successful and disappointing season for the organization and its fan base. It really is such a fine-line.

With all playoff teams so close together in the standings, does seeding really matter? If the third seed has two more points during an 82 game schedule than the sixth seed, does that make the third seed a better team? It most likely does not. Never mind the inception of the shootout, which taints point totals that “teams accumulate” because it really is an individual competition, that is, of course, gone come playoff time. Many readers may be thinking, “But c’mon these teams get home-ice advantage.” While that point is true, how important is a one game home-ice advantage in a seven-game series, in which the teams facing each other are basically equal? It is somewhat important, but that’s only if the series is extended to seven games, and that didn’t happen all that much in the 2007 playoffs. All in all, when two teams face-off in this fall’s playoffs and you hear the word “favourite” being used, take a second to really consider if that “favourite” is really any better than their opponent.

For Illegal Curve, I’m Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Numbers Game: Goal Differential

We have just passed the half-way point in the NHL season. With the all-star game over, GM's will be spending the next few weeks assessing their team's chance of succeeding in the playoffs and deciding whether they are buyers or sellers at the fast approaching deadline.

One indicator of success is a team's goal differential. In the Western Conference, the Ducks and the Avs are the only playoff teams that have scored fewer goals than they have allowed. But their -.02 differential will almost certainly become positive. Selanne, a 40 goal scorer last year, announced yesterday that he will be returning this season and his $600,000 salary will allow Burke to make some last minute additions at the deadline. The Avs have been hampered by injuries, but as soon as Stasny and Sakic return they will receive some much welcomed and needed offensive contributions.

The only non-playoff teams in the Western conference with a positive goal differential, the Blue Jackets and the Predators, sit within a point of the 8th place Avalanche.

In the East, it is much the same story. The Bruins and the Islanders are the only playoff teams that allow more goals than they score, while the Sabres are the only non-playoff team with a positive goal differential. The fact that the Lightning have the third worst goal differential in the league despite having two of the league's top 10 scorers in Lecavelier and St. Louis speaks to the problems they have been having in net this year.




For Illegal Curve, I am Adam Gutkin.

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Tuesday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

The Western Conference morning papers are soon to follow...

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Monday, January 28, 2008

The HD Corner - 2008 All-Star Game

CBC’s coverage of this year’s All-Star game included Jim Hughson doing the play-by-play, with Craig Simpson and Greg Millen crammed into the booth. As usual, Hughson called a flawless game, Simpson provided some insight, and Millen was more annoying than a Carrot Top stand-up routine. There was an increase of in-booth banter due to the friendly nature of the game as expected; however, the folks at Versus seemed to have taken this to a new level. As much criticism as Versus receives for its lack of viewers, they deserve credit for usually providing entertaining broadcasts for their target – something that CBC has been criticized for in the past. Specifically, at one point of the All-Star game telecast, Gary Bettman was invited into the booth and was joking with Blues goalie Manny Legace about large goalie equipment while he was in the process of playing. CBC can learn a thing or two, and ease up on the boring Mike Babcock interview next time around.

Unfortunately my HD-PVR let me down and I was unable to watch the Skills Competition live (according to Illegal Curve’s Cold Hard Rant section, I didn’t miss much). Needless to say I was still able to watch most of it on CBC.ca’s streaming video section, which I highly recommend to anyone wanting to see the incredible Obstacle Course Relay that closely resembled the 1980’s board game Mouse Trap (click here for a trip down memory lane).

Now on to some other random All-Star game thoughts…

Was there anything more awkward then the Elliote Friedman and Samantha Micelli - I mean Alyssa Milano - interview. Wow Alyssa, you have a new NHL clothing line? Will it be available at Stitches, Winners, or Giant Tiger? These are things that I need to know. Speaking of Who’s the Boss, did anyone know that little Jonathan has come out of the closet? The only thing less predictable was Tony Danza’s career going into a downward spiral after playing a male housekeeper for eight years (not that there’s anything wrong with that).

So you’re telling me that Boston Bruins goalie Tim Thomas is an all-star? What, was Jim Carey not available? It’s important to note that Thomas’ goalie coach on the Bruins is non other than Bob Essensa. Yes, a goalie with the nickname “Flipper” has trained and produced an all-star calibre goalie. Further, the same man who once traded Teemu Selanne for Chad Kilger and Oleg Tverdovsky is the head coach of the Eastern Conference All-Stars. Next I’ll find out that Doug Smail is Alex Ovechkin’s power skating coach.

All-Star game MVP? Forget Eric Staal, what about The Hives? Past All-Star Game bands have included the Barenaked Ladies, The Trews, and probably The Harlots, so The Hives were quite the pleasant surprise. The only disappointing fact was that they didn’t play during the 2nd intermission. Instead, we were treated to the funky beats of “Ne-Yo” (whoever that is). Wow they sure now how to party south of the Dixie line!

Although this year’s All-Star Game wasn’t the most entertaining, it did conclude in dramatic fashion and featured an interesting subplot with Sharks goalie Evgeni Nabokov and fan favourite Ilya Kovalchuk of the Thrashers. Click here to see a clip of a few Nabokov-Kovalchuk highlights.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Breaking News: Teemu Selanne returns to Ducks

TSN is reporting that the Ducks have agreed to a 1 year, $1.5 million contract with Teemu Selanne.

Instant Analysis: The Ducks have few, if any, holes on their roster now that Selanne has agreed to return. While he may miss his former centerman Andy McDonald, the sniper is a terrific addition for a team that can use some extra scoring. It is official--the Ducks are stacked.

Ballhype: hype it up!

Fantasy Watch: Scouring the Waiver Wire

D Braydon Coburn, Philadelphia Flyers
Coburn didn't make much noise throughout the first half of the season, but managed to head into the all-star break riding a four game point streak. The former Atlanta Thrasher currently has 22 points on the year, making him Philly's second leading scorer on defense. Receiving time on the power-play, Coburn has made the most of his opportunity notching three pp assists in January. Entering the second half of the season, Coburn will be looking to extended his point streak and play a larger role in Philadelphia's offense.
Fantasy Take: Coburn has been very inconsistent all year but has heated up over the the last four games and may be worth a flier for those in need of a lower-end option at defense.

F Chuck Kobasew, Boston Bruins
In his first full year with Boston Kobasew is off to his best start as a pro, scoring 17 goals and 26 points in 49 games. The forward has benefited from playing with all-star centerman Marc Savard and is giving the Bruins a capable goal scorer they so desperately need. Leading the team with 17 goals, Kobasew has also been productive on the powerplay, scoring five pp goals to go along with four assists. Look for Kobasew to break his previous career high in points and goals in the next few weeks.
Fantasy Take: Kobasew has been a shaky play but is currently heating up, scoring five points in his last four games. Before making a claim for the forward, watch how he performs post all-star break to see if he can continue to be a regular on the score sheet.

F Martin Gelinas, Nashville Predators
Gelinas has come alive this January, scoring half of his points in this month alone. Appearing in 44 games for the Preds, Gelinas has totaled eight goals and 18 points on the year. Enjoying his best game of the season earlier this week, Gelinas scored two goals and added one assist while playing over 16 minutes. Although Gelinas had a rough season up until January, the forward has shown that he can still score in this league and may even be a decent fantasy option in deeper leagues.
Fantasy Take: Gelinas enjoyed a great month, scoring three goals and six assists. Keep an eye on him post all-star break to see if he continues with this pace, or returns to scoreless ways.

D Ryan Suter, Nasville Predators
Suter has been Nashville's second most productive defenseman, scoring five goals and 21 points. He is currently riding a four game point streak, scoring four points during that span while averaging around 15 minutes of ice time. Although he has failed to pick up power-play points (Suter has only two pp assists this month), the defenseman is still young and continuing to progress as a player. Increasing his point total in each of the first two seasons, Suter is a lock to surpass his 24 points he put up last year and could finish with around 35+ points if he continues to play well.
Fantasy Take: Although Suter may not help your fantasy team this year, he is a good defenseman to look at in keeper leagues. In only his third year in the league, Suter continues to improve as a player and will only get better as the years go on.


For Illegal Curve, I'm Jonny Remis

Ballhype: hype it up!

NHL Morning Papers (Monday Edition)

Here are the national morning papers:

Here are the Eastern Conference morning papers:

Here are the Western Conference morning papers:

For Illegal Curve, I'm Richard Pollock.

Ballhype: hype it up!